Why China’s low fertility rate is a serious problem – Zhang Lijia

 

China saw for the first time its population drop. Journalist and author Zhang Lijia explains in the South China Morning Post why the government should take this development seriously and what actions it could take. “Leaders will have to learn to treat citizens with respect,” she adds.

Zhang Lijia:

The low fertility rate is China’s long-term time bomb. In the past, the Chinese economy benefited from an abundant and youthful labour force. Now the sharply declining fertility rate, compounded with a rapidly ageing population and longer lifespan, will inevitably cause labour shortages and an economic downturn.

The authorities have to take the matter extremely seriously. A good starting point would be offering better legal protection to working mothers and introducing measures that help them balance work and life, such as longer maternity leave and good childcare facilities while severely punishing those who mistreat them. Pregnant workers are still frequently sacked by employers, and the perpetrators are rarely punished.

I also hope the Chinese government will deal with the matter humanely instead of using coercion or force, such as the forced sterilisation and abortion that supported the one-child policy. Back then, local officials competed with each other in coming up with excessive measures. As a factory worker in the 1980s, I had to visit the “period police” every month to show I was not pregnant.

“China’s current political and economic model is a typical legalist model of ‘powerful government and weak families’,” said Yi Fuxian, a professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and author of Big Country with an Empty Nest.

“The legalists can enable the country to rise rapidly. But this rise is unsustainable because it undermines family values and unduly restricts individual freedom, which can lead to a decline in population and socioeconomic vitality.”

Legalism, an ancient school of philosophy, emphasises strong state control and absolute obedience to authorities. I doubt the legalists’ heavy-handed way can work well in the long run given that today’s youth are more individualistic and aware of their rights.

The recent protests against excessive anti-pandemic measures are a case in point. It might be difficult for the authoritarian regime to give up the legalist model, but leaders will have to learn to treat citizens with respect.

Yi has this word of warning: “The Chinese authorities need to accept this difficult truth. China is not facing a rise but an existential crisis unseen for thousands of years.”

More in the South China Morning Post.

Zhang Lijia is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need her at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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How China’s one-child policy has hurt its aging population – Ian Johnson

 

Ian Johnson

The world looks with awe at China’s economic achievements, but because of its one-child policy, it not only gained fast economic growth but also an aging population that offers an equally devastating income trap for the decades to come, unless it invests more smartly into its people, says China veteran Ian Johnson at the Vietnam Brief.

Ian Johnson:

China getting into the middle income trap is still very much up in the air. It is not yet clear will China become a rich country; per capita income is still on the lower side. It is still a middle-income country. The educational level is not broad enough to support a jump from middle-income to high-income level. China doesn’t have better educated mass population and education is yet poor in the countryside and there are a huge number of people who just have middle school educational level. The government is investing in it but this could be too late too little for China. Scott Rozelle in his survey studies in rural setup about the educational levels concludes that the educational setup hasn’t grown as it should have for China to be a developed country. China has till now ignored to invest heavily in the educational and technical sector and this is hurting China badly. In the modern world with all the sophistication and technological advancement around, China doesn’t have enough numbers to continue and support its economic growth.

The one-child policy has hurt China’s interests in more than one way. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is also at the receiving end of this policy. Even though the declining population does not affect PLA much as PLA has been on a program for decades to get smaller, more professional and higher tech. It (PLA) is more focused on high end weapon systems and have lower response time as it won’t be fighting a war involving a million soldiers and in that regard the population doesn’t matter much. The challenge however is that there is still the idea of PLA being a mass army where the pay is not very good, educational level is not very good, a typical recruit is a rural person with low school education, they have college graduates but not enough who can operate the modern weapon systems.

The decreasing population due to state policies poses a high risk for Chinese progress. It has already slowed down and have sounded alarm bells in the system. The skewed sex ratio is yet another problem which has led to increase in human trafficking and increase in crimes. China’s worries are real and they are shifting from one-child policy to three-child policy, however the relief is yet very far off.

More at the Vietnam Brief.

Ian Johnson is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your (online) meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

Are you looking for more political experts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.

China´s Twilight Years - Howard French

Howard French

While many analysts expect China to grab chances when the US is changing its global position, eminent China experts Howard French sees the opposite is happening. With a shrinking and aging population, China´s power is diminishing, he argues in The Atlantic. While the US have chances.

Howard French:

Under President Xi Jinping, China has until very recently appeared to be a global juggernaut—hugely expanding its economic and political relations with Africa; building artificial islands in the South China Sea, an immense body of water that it now proclaims almost entirely its own; launching the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, with ambitions to rival the World Bank. The new bank is expected to support a Chinese initiative called One Belt, One Road, a collection of rail, road, and port projects designed to lash China to the rest of Asia and even Europe. 

Projects like these aim not only to boost China’s already formidable commercial power but also to restore the global centrality that Chinese consider their birthright. 

As if this were not enough to worry the U.S., China has also showed interest in moving into America’s backyard. Easily the most dramatic symbol of this appetite is a Chinese billionaire’s plan to build across Nicaragua a canal that would dwarf the American-built Panama Canal. But this project is stalled, an apparent victim of recent stock-market crashes in China... 

Not so long ago, conventional wisdom in China held that the country’s economy would soon overtake America’s in size, achieving a GDP perhaps double or triple that of the U.S. later this century. As demographic reality sets in, however, some Chinese experts now say that the country’s economic output may never match that of the U.S. 

With American Baby Boomers entering retirement, the United States has its own pressing social-safety-net costs. What is often neglected in debates about swelling entitlement spending, however, is how much better America’s position is than other countries’. Once again, numbers tell the story best: By the end of the century, China’s population is projected to dip below 1 billion for the first time since 1980. At the same time, America’s population is expected to hit 450 million. Which is to say, China’s population will go from roughly four and a half times as large as America’s to scarcely more than twice its size. 

Even as China’s workforce shrinks, America’s is expected to increase by 31 percent from 2010 to 2050. This growing labor supply will boost economic growth, strengthen the tax base, and relieve pressure on the Social Security system. At the same time, Americans will continue to enjoy a substantial advantage over the Chinese in terms of per capita income. This advantage in wealth will continue to underwrite U.S. security commitments and capabilities around the world.

More in the Atlantic.

Howard French is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers´request form.

Are you looking for more strategy experts at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.  

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China's demographic abyss - Paul French

+Paul French 

The population bubble created by Mao Zedong is becoming a wave of pensioners, as China's current population - limited by a one-child policy - might not be able to sustain that grey gulf. Analyst Paul French takes a peek at the country's demographic abyss for the EastAsiaForum.

Paul French:

Auguste Comte, the father of sociology, famously said that ‘demographics is destiny’. China now has an ageing population. The National Bureau of Statistics estimates that by 2015 there will be some 200 million Chinese people over 60, increasing to 300 million by 2030, and perhaps as many as 480 million by 2050... 

Chinese society does seem to be starting to respond to its ageing demographics. The government is slowly reforming the pension system while the savings rate remains high partly due to saving for retirement, or because people are setting aside funds to look after parents in their old age. Senior citizens’ homes and care facilities have started to appear, overwhelmingly in the private sector. 

Despite this, old age will increasingly be a major strain on the Chinese economy. At a time when the government is seeking to boost personal consumption, increasing amounts of income and savings will have to be diverted into care for the elderly, geriatric healthcare and medicines. While the quality of life of China’s elderly will become a key ‘quality of national life’ indicator, the strain on family budgets will also see the cost of old age trickle down the system, forcing many to make hard choices between, say, paying for their child’s overseas education or their parents’ care. 

China cannot escape its demographic bind. All China can do is realise it and make the best preparations possible. Providing quality of life for China’s elderly will require the current economic reforms to successfully create jobs, maintain wage rises, allow for continued savings and permit a more regulated and participatory tax base to allow for additional government spending on geriatric care. It is impossible to divorce China’s demographics from its macroeconomics—a secure and pleasant old age will, for most Chinese, depend on continued economic growth.

More in the EastAsiaForum.

Paul French is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers' request form.  

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